Republican Gov. Rick Scott is ahead by 5 percentage points in his bid to oust Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, according to a new poll from Vox Populi.

The results show Scott earning 48 percent support, with Nelson nabbing just 43 percent.

Of the 9 percent of voters who are undecided, most are leaning toward Nelson. The race becomes a 50-50 toss up if undecideds are forced to choose between the two candidates.

The survey ran Oct. 27-30 and sampled 696 “active” voters, according to Vox Populi. The margin of error was listed at 3.7 percentage points.

The poll does appear to over-sample Democrats. Among those who responded, 42 percent labeled themselves as Democrats, 36 percent as Republicans and 22 percent as independents or “other.”

That +6 advantage for Democrats over Republicans would be a tremendous outlier among midterms in the last 40 years, where Republicans have held an advantage, on average.

That could spell trouble for Nelson, who is trailing even with the sample having a strong Democratic lean.

Recent polling has shown an incredibly tight contest, though typically with Nelson holding onto a slight lead.

Both Scott and Nelson broke even in terms of favorability, according to the new poll. For Scott, 41 percent of voters rated him favorably and 41 percent unfavorably. For Nelson, 40 percent had a favorable view of him while 40 percent had an unfavorable view.

The poll also found Nelson’s vote against confirming now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh helped him more than hurt.

The results show 35 percent of voters saying his vote made it more likely they will vote for Nelson, with 28 percent saying less likely, 28 percent saying it had no impact, and 9 percent saying they were unsure.

Respondents also praised Gov. Scott’s handling of Hurricane Michael, with 46 percent saying he did a “good” job. Just 13 percent said he did a “poor” job, with 25 percent rating his performance as “fair,” and 17 percent having no opinion.

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